Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
